Beijing, February 2007 — China’s one-child policy has the country facing a shortage of women. By 2020 the State Population and Family Planning Commission estimates that China will have 30 million more marriage-age men than women. The commission fears the gender imbalance could lead to social instability.

China’s one-child policy aims at curbing population growth. It limits urban couples to one child and rural families to two.

Chinese parents’ traditional preference for a boy who could care for them in old age coupled with the country’s one-child policy has triggered the situation. Although illegal, abortion is widespread among pregnant women whose early sonograms show a girl. These abortions are especially common in rural areas. Also, a mother who gives birth to a girl may put the child up for adoption abroad, hoping her next pregnancy will bring a son.

In 2005, an average of 118 boys were born for every 100 female births, up from a ratio of 110 to 100 in 2000. In some areas, such as Guangdong and Hainan, the ratio is as high as 130 boys to 100 girls. For industrialized countries, the average is between 104 and 107 boys for every 100 girls.

The China Daily newspaper pointed out that creating a suitable social security and retirement system would help prevent the problem. Parents would then not feel compelled to have a son on whom they can depend in old age. It would also improve the outlook for a single son looking at supporting two aged parents and, perhaps, four grandparents.

The minister of China’s National Population and Family Planning Commission said, however, that the government is focused on a ten to fifteen year fix for the problem, using education campaigns and a carrot-and-stick approach. The minister cited rewards for parents who have girls — such as retirement pensions — and punishments for parents aborting a female child.